Thoughts on COP 29

COP29 – the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – brought together nearly 200 countries in November last year. Brian Unsted, Lead Specialist: Environmental Sustainability at Liberty Two Degrees, shares some of his takes on the global event.

I was fortunate enough to attend COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November last year through the Alliance for Climate Action (ACA) SA. It was an incredible experience – both COP29 and Baku were very different to what I’d expected. It was interesting that the event was hosted in Azerbaijan – approximately half of the country’s economy is generated through the oil and gas industries, but it is taking strides to pivot away from this reliance.

Conferencing with 60 000 people simply can’t take the format of what I’ve become accustomed to. There were many different work streams and areas of interest in different formats taking place simultaneously. Surprisingly, relatively few products and technologies were on display – there was far greater emphasis on the countries, NPOs and civil societies who hosted pavilions that provided opportunity for interaction, content sharing, displays and panel discussions.

The ACA global network hosted sessions with other representatives from Japan, America, Australia, Vietnam, Mexico, Chile and Argentina. Presentations were on various discussion points around country-specific issues, including political landscapes, economic considerations, renewable energy, carbon pricing, the role of nuclear energy and government commitments towards emissions reduction programmes.

Global politics and sustainability

A number of important political factors contributed to the COP29 backdrop, including the influence of war, with the ongoing Russian-Ukraine situation and Israel-Palestine conflict. Breaking news at the time of COP29 was the imminent re-election of Donald Trump into the White House for a second term.

Key focuses at COP29 included financing; a global stock-take (assessing where the world stands on climate action); NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions), which measures each country’s efforts towards emissions reductions; and CHAMP (Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnership).

Concern at what the Trump presidency holds for the American sustainability movement was almost palpable, bearing in mind his stance. Prior commitments to the Paris Agreement, made in 2021, have now been retracted by the new Trump administration. I am hopeful that relevant businesses in the US are enabled and supported enough to continue doing their work during the transition – and that Democrat-led states, which are more supportive of climate change, are at least able to continue with emissions reduction programmes.

There are also concerns over the impact of politics in Argentina from President Milei, who recalled the Argentinian delegation attending COP29 while we were there. He is a supporter of free market policies and wants fewer restrictions on business, including what he deems restrictive climate and environmental legislation. His intention is to drive economic growth through industrialisation and “extractive” industries, including mining, oil, gas, intensive agriculture and fishing.

There appears to be an agenda at play that polarises public views: you are either “pro-climate change” or support economic growth – while there is, in reality, middle-ground with coordinated planning and development. It does entail a high degree of complexity and there will be “winners and losers” – as there always are with significant change.

Climate finance

With regard to sustainability financing, US$300 billion/annum (by 2035) has been agreed to, a significant increase from the previous US$100 billion/annum, but a long way off what is generally accepted as a required number of over US$1.3 trillion. There have been calls for the private sector and multilateral banks to assist in providing the difference.
The other (contentious) key finance-related issue is the format of this funding: developing countries take the view that it should be provided by way of grants from high-income economies, rather than loans. The argument is that high-income countries have benefited from the developing countries’ natural resources for centuries, and are significantly larger contributors of emissions.

Clean energy

The role of nuclear energy in various economies is quite a divisive issue, as it has been in South Africa. Interestingly, Japan is in the process of reducing reliance on nuclear power from 40% to just 6% after safety-related incidents at nuclear plants. In Australia, the current government is not in favour of nuclear energy, but the opposition is in support.

Where we see South Africa lagging is in the transition away from fossil fuel-based power supply. In Japan,
40-50% of the energy supply will be provided through renewable energy at a national level by 2030. In South Africa currently, non-fossil fuel-based energy is less than 10% and growing mainly as a result of private investment into solar, wind and hydro power.

People and planet

A hugely important consideration is social issues. The interconnectedness between social and environmental justice is much clearer now, compared to the way they’ve been “boxed” previously. In many developing countries, there is similarity in terms of challenges experienced, natural resources (reliance on, and abundance of them), impact of colonial pasts, political instability and volatility, the size of the countries and relatively large populations. Where possible, success stories and learnings should be shared.

On a more conceptual front, “justice, equity, fair share and just transition” were discussed. I was impressed by the work that the South African Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) has done in this area, and we appear to be quite advanced compared to other countries, with collaboration between government, private business, civil society and communities. We need to see this work translate into job creation.

In closing, I thoroughly enjoyed my time at both COP29 and in Baku. The event itself takes place on a staggering scale, the knowledge available is vast, and the networking invaluable. Baku is a fascinating city with superb architecture – a melting pot of cultures with a rich history and sense of nationalism. European, Turkish and Russian influences are clear in the nation’s culture, architecture and its delicious food.

We eagerly await what 2025 has in store. Let’s continue to do our best to make the world a greener place!